Is Inflation a Monetary Phenomenon in the East European Economies? – Multifrequency Bayesian Quantile Inference

Is Inflation a Monetary Phenomenon Only? A Non Monetarist Episode of Inflation: the Italian Case

These Working papers collect the work of the Faculty of Economics of the University of Insubria. The publication of work by other Authors can be proposed by a member of the Faculty, provided that the paper has been presented in public. The name of the proposer is reported in a footnote. The views expressed in the Working papers reflect the opinions of the Authors only, and not necessarily the o...

Monetary Models and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies

The dilation phenomenon in robust Bayesian inference*

Upper and lower probabilities may become uniformly less precise after conditioning. We call this dilation. We review some results about dilation, present some examples and explore the effect of Bayesian updating. Also, we show a connection between dilation and nonconglomerability. Finally, we consider the implications of this phenomenon. AMS Subject Classifications: Primary 62F15; Secondary 62F35

The Catch-Up Phenomenon in Bayesian Inference

Standard Bayesian model selection/averaging sometimes learn too slowly: there exist other learning methods that lead to better predictions based on less data. We give a novel analysis of this ”catch-up” phenomenon. Based on this analysis, we propose the switching method, a modification of Bayesian model averaging that never learns slower, but sometimes learns much faster than Bayes. The method ...

Comparing monetary policy rules in CEE economies: A Bayesian approach

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: C11 E32 E52 Keywords: New Keynesian models Small open economy Monetary policy Taylor rules Bayesian methods Using the Bayesian approach, a small open economy DSGE model was estimated using a sample of quarterly data for three Central and Eastern Europe economies, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The hypothesis that central banks react to exchange rat...